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"Cash flow"
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Cash flow for dummies
This hands-on guide is your plain-English manual to cash flow basics. You'll get valuable tips, techniques, and information on the fundamentals of cash management to maximize cash flow and understand how it affects the quality of your company's earnings.
Book
Linking Customer Behaviors to Cash Flow Level and Volatility: Implications for Marketing Practices
Marketing affects customer behavior, and customer behavior in turn drives a firm's cash flows and, ultimately, valuation. In this sequence of relationships, a commonly overlooked factor by marketers is the volatility of customers' cash flows. This study links different recurring customer behaviors to the future level and volatility of a customer's cash flows. Empirical analyses of the large customer database of a Fortune 500 retailer reveal that a 1% desired change in the different types of recurring customer behaviors corresponds to a future quarterly 4.61% decrease in the cash flow volatility and $39.42 million increase in the future cash flow level of the firm. Furthermore, firm-initiated marketing is 1.9–3.2 times more effective at managing the future cash flow level and volatility when it is selectively targeted to customers with certain characteristics. Overall, the study enables marketers to manage different customer behaviors that influence customers' future cash flow level and volatility and ultimately quantify the impact of these behaviors on the shareholder value of the firm.
Journal Article
Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns
We propose a new investor sentiment index that is aligned with the purpose of predicting the aggregate stock market. By eliminating a common noise component in sentiment proxies, the new index has much greater predictive power than existing sentiment indices have both in and out of sample, and the predictability becomes both statistically and economically significant. In addition, it outperforms well-recognized macroeconomic variables and can also predict cross-sectional stock returns sorted by industry, size, value, and momentum. The driving force of the predictive power appears to stem from investors' biased beliefs about future cash flows.
Journal Article
Do Direct Cash Flow Disclosures Help Predict Future Operating Cash Flows and Earnings?
Motivated by recent FASB, IASB, and CFA Institute comments, we explore the predictive value of direct method cash flow disclosures. A primary stated purpose of the direct method is to better forecast future performance. To examine this purpose, we first document that direct method line items, such as cash received from customers, are not reliably estimable using income statements and either balance sheets or indirect method statements of cash flows. When these estimation (articulation) errors are included in cash flows and earnings forecasting models, forecasting performance significantly improves. In addition, employing a future ERC (FERC) methodology, we find evidence suggesting that market participants utilize direct method disclosures for their stated purpose: to better forecast future operating performance. After conducting several tests for self-selection concerns, we conclude that the direct method is valuable to investors when forecasting future cash flows and earnings.
Journal Article
Winning at active management : the essential roles of culture, philosophy, and technology
\"Winning at Active Management conducts an in-depth examination of crucial issues facing the investment management industry, and will be a valuable resource for asset managers, institutional consultants, managers of pension and endowment funds, and advisers to individual investors. Bill Priest, Steve Bleiberg and Mike Welhoelter all experienced investment professionals, consider the challenges of managing portfolios through complex markets, as well as managing the cultural and technological complexities of the investment business. The book’s initial section highlights the importance of culture within an investment firm – the characteristics of strong cultures, the imperatives of communication and support, and suggestions for leading firms through times of both adversity and prosperity. It continues with a thorough discussion of active portfolio management for equities. The ongoing debate over active versus passive management is reviewed in detail, drawing on both financial theory and real-world investing results. The book also contrasts traditional methods of portfolio management, based on accounting metrics and price-earnings ratios, with Epoch Investment Partners’ philosophy of investing on free cash flow and appropriate capital allocation. Winning at Active Management closes with an inquiry into the crucial and growing role of technology in investing. The authors assert that the most effective portfolio strategies result from neither pure fundamental nor quantitative methods, but instead from thoughtful combinations of analyst and portfolio manager experience and skill with the speed and breadth of quantitative analysis. The authors illustrate the point with an example of an innovative Epoch equity strategy based on economic logic and judgment, but enabled by information technology. Winning at Active Management also offers important insights into selecting active managers – the market cycle factors that have held back many managers’ performance in recent years, and the difficulty of identifying those firms that truly possess investment skill. Drawing on behavioral economic theory and empirical research, the book makes a convincing case that many active investment managers can and do generate returns superior to those of the broad market\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Market Expectations in the Cross-Section of Present Values
Returns and cash flow growth for the aggregate U.S. stock market are highly and robustly predictable. Using a single factor extracted from the cross-section of book-tomarket ratios, we find an out-of-sample return forecasting R² of 13% at the annual frequency (0.9% monthly). We document similar out-of-sample predictability for returns on value, size, momentum, and industry portfolios. We present a model linking aggregate market expectations to disaggregated valuation ratios in a latent factor system. Spreads in value portfolios' exposures to economic shocks are key to identifying predictability and are consistent with duration-based theories of the value premium.
Journal Article
Cash is surprisingly valuable as a strategic asset
Academics, politicians, and journalists are often highly critical of U.S. firms for holding too much cash. Cash holdings are stockpiled free-cash flow and incur substantial opportunity costs from the perspectives of economics. However, behavioral theory highlights the benefits of cash holdings as fungible slack resources facilitating adaptive advantages. We use the countervailing forces embodied in these two theories to hypothesize and test a quadratic functional relationship of returns to cash measured by Tobin's q. We also build and test a related novel hypothesis of scale-dependent returns to cash based on the competitive strategy concept of strategic deterrence. Tests for both of these hypotheses are positive and show that returns to cash continue to increase far beyond transactional needs.
Journal Article